Debate is rising over the question of whether the computing industry has entered its next stage of evolution, in which the dominant method for end users to access applications and services is no longer through PCs, but through mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. The battle for client seats will not just be driven by the debate about the role of tablet PCs versus conventional PCs. It will be fueled by the demand for new classes of tools to help users communicate, analyze, and create content and data. These tools will be optimized for particular classes of devices, based on tablet or PC form factors, which balance user needs with cost, accessibility, usability, and performance.
In 2012, two developments will shift the industry's focus back to the massive established base of Windows + Intel technology in pursuit of innovation for client computing. A new generation of processors, with low energy consumption and outstanding graphics processing capabilities, could help to rejuvenate interest in PCs by underscoring their importance for many critical computing tasks. Also, with Windows 8, Microsoft will finally have a serious contender in its competition with Apple for mobile devices.
Vendors that enjoy strong visibility with users at the client level may be able to translate this presence to success on the back end as well, either through targeted on-premise server offerings or cloud-based services that are vertically integrated with their client platforms (for example, Amazon driving into clients with Kindle Fire, and Apple driving into cloud services with iCloud). Public cloud providers that close the loop between business and consumer services will stake out dominant positions in the all-cloud IT world. This opportunity could cause vendors that have traditionally focused primarily on the server, such as Oracle or IBM, to rethink their client strategies.
This year, tablet computers will become established as a corporate mobile platform for some classes of employees. During the 2011 holiday season, consumers bought tablet devices in huge numbers, and many will seek ways to use these devices to access corporate data and applications. The benefits of the tablet's light weight, small size, and entertainment value when travelling will increasingly outweigh the potential cost and risks for organizations of integrating these new client devices into corporate infrastructures alongside traditional PCs.
The growing demand for enabling tablets to work with corporate IT will force IT infrastructure managers to respond with the necessary changes to bring them into the fold. Security issues in particular will prompt companies to issue stringent qualifications regarding personal devices before they can access company data. For cost-cutting purposes, companies will be happy to shift the expense of laptops, smartphones and other mobile devices to employees. Employees will not want to give up any app on their personal device; if companies are too stringent, employees will figure out ways to circumvent the rules. The challenge is not to define unenforceable rules, but for corporate access software to be secure and well tested.
Tablets are great for consuming content: surfing the web, watching video, and so on. Tablets are also great for form completion, and many businesses are busy developing tablet applications for automating specific tasks. However, most employees are not likely to spend their days at work just browsing the Web and doing social networking, and many business activities are simply not practical on tablet devices. For example, while touch keypads on tablets may be acceptable for sending short text messages, they are cumbersome for extensive text-based input, and true e-mail-based collaboration needs a full-function keyboard. Mobile sales teams might like the portability of tablets, but tablets are likely to augment, not replace, traditional keyboard-based devices, which will still be needed for activities such as writing proposals and creating reports. Therefore, while tablets and smartphones will become increasingly essential companions for many users, their small screen size and usability limitations will prevent most workers from abandoning their traditional PCs, especially if their job function depends on Microsoft Office.
At the same time, hardware vendors are trying to come up with products that will allow them to compete more effectively with Apple. Vendors trying to enter the tablet market have discovered that it is not actually a "tablet" market, but an "iPad" market. While some vendors will still attempt to compete by delivering tablet alternatives, others will instead try to evolve their existing PC designs to take on some of the benefits of tablets, shifting from the Netbook formula towards emulating Apple's MacBook Air. For example, Intel is now promoting Ultrabooks, which are thin, light, have long battery life, and have a keyboard.
Also, in 2012 Microsoft will introduce Windows 8, the next generation of its operating system for both PCs and servers. Microsoft has traditionally drawn its success from two factors: the tight integration between mainstream PCs and commodity servers, and its relationship with application developers. The next generation of Intel hardware, coupled with a major new release of Microsoft's ubiquitous client OS, will help to seed a vast new playing field for applications that fully exploit the exploding availability of computing power and network bandwidth.
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