The recent IDEAS newsletter summarized some predictions made by IDEAS analysts for the coming year (see PDF). In the current economic climate, it initially appeared hard to avoid a gloomy outlook. The ability for organizations to make major investments in new technology could be dampened in the short term. But while times are tough, some possible technology investments promise benefits that are too good to pass up, and customers will be implementing many of those in 2009. The driving force for making those investments will be cost savings. The major vendors, including IBM, HP, Unisys, Fujitsu, and Sun, recognize this opportunity, and they will be launching a variety of new products and services to help their customers reduce costs.
Indeed, whenever the economic recovery begins, it is quite possible that it will be led by technology firms. Many new ideas will emerge and mature in 2009, which could become a defining year for IT. For example, with storage systems, Disk-Array Processor Enclosures (DPEs) will increasingly be based on industry-standard hardware running various storage-optimized operating systems. In the area of server hardware, we expect to see increased competition among traditional UNIX-based midrange and high-end servers. At the same time, improvements in x86-based multiprocessing and virtualization will allow massive consolidation of industry-standard servers. The environmental cost savings (power and cooling) alone are making this type of redeployment an attractive choice, even in a down economy. In many cases, payback can be achieved in as little time as 6-9 months.
Significant improvements will continue to be made in the environmental sustainability of IT products, as customers demand easily accessible and usable information on product environmental data in a non-competitive and environmentally conscious manner. Virtualization technology is clearly thriving as it becomes a standard part of IT infrastructures, not just in servers, but also in storage, networks, and desktops. One area to watch particularly closely this year is increasing virtualization of the desktop. As the trends of desktop virtualization, mobile computing, and telecommuting converge, the traditional desktop PC form factor could near extinction.
Businesses that survive the recession will look quite different than they look today, and firms that do not embrace IT change in the next year may be out of business. When the recovery starts, those who are nimble will be able to invest and out-maneuver their competition. This notion applies to users of IT, as well as the hardware and software vendors themselves. The trick of course is timing: investing too early may deplete funds needed to hunker-down and survive, while investing too late risks someone else becoming the leader. In any event, the world of IT will look totally different in 2010 than it did in 2007. The changes will be profound, possibly having a similar impact on the IT industry to the introduction of the original PC nearly 30 years ago.
Comments